By Jeffrey Saut | 21 July 2008
"He that sells what isn’t his‘n must buy it back or go to pris`n" is an old stock market axiom that has stood the test of time. Loosely translated, it means that if you sell a stock "short" (betting that it is going down in price), you are responsible for ANY loss incurred if that stock rallies. And, last week that old market "saw" took on new meaning when the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) changed the rules on "naked" short-selling (see last Wednesday’s WSJ story).
Clearly, "naked" short-selling [[technically illegal for such as you or I, but not for certain Wall Street 'traders': normxxx]] has been a "dirty" little secret on Wall Street for years, but that has now changed with the revelations from the SEC. Indeed, last week the SEC changed the rules and required that "naked" short-sales, in certain securities, be settled like the majority of stock transactions. To us, this was the "lit match" for the already gasoline-layered environment in the equity markets.
Manifestly, the selling-stampede was already "long of tooth" since most such stampedes rarely last more than 30 sessions. [Recall that selling-stampedes tend to run 17 - 25 sessions with only 1 - 3 day countertrend pauses, and/or counter-trend attempts, before they exhaust themselves.] In fact, the longest "buying stampede" chronicled in our notes was the 38-session upside-stampede into the October 1987 "crash," while the longest selling-stampede occurred between May and July of 2002 and encompassed 44 sessions. Consequently, for the past few weeks we have been looking for some kind of "throwback" rally since 7-1-08 was session 30 from the DJIA’s May 19th high. As stated in our July 7th missive, "It’s not that we are turning aggressively bullish, but we think that unless the markets are in ‘crash mode,’ it is time to consider a corrective stock market rally."
Additionally, our proprietary oversold indicator was more oversold than it has been in a very long time, so the stage was set. And when the SEC changed the rules on "naked" short-sales, that "spark" lit the "gasoline" and the rest, as they say, is history. The result was an explosive rally, especially in the Financials, that began last Tuesday, lifting the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF/20.67) an eye-popping 13% by Thursday’s close. According to one savvy seer, that was an 11 standard deviation event (for comparison purposes, a 4 standard deviation event is an event that is supposed to occur only once every 31,000 years).
Given the SEC’s mandate, it was not surprising that the highest shorted stocks rallied the most (+15%), while the lowest shorted stocks rallied only 2%. It will be interesting, therefore, to see if last week’s "short covering" rally can sustain and broaden out this week. Whatever the outcome, we think the selling-stampede has ended. How far the rally will carry is unknowable, but we believe the equity markets have further "upside legs."
Does that mean we think this marks the end of the stock market’s and economy’s consternations? Well, not really, for while "things" may not get a whole lot worse from here, we have a difficult time believing "things" will get materially better either. Indeed, our longer-term thoughts were best summed-up in an email exchange with one particularly bright Raymond James financial advisor who emailed us last week.
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The response read:
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So where do we stand? We think we are the middle of the envisioned "W" shaped economic pattern. To wit, the economic "slide" began in 2007, which is the downward-sloping left side of the "W." Said slide freaked-out the politicos, as well as the Federal Reserve, causing them to take Herculean efforts in an attempt to stave off a recession. Those efforts have caused the economy to enter the upward-sloping middle part of the "W" whereby the stimulus gives participants the feeling that the worse has been averted and the economy will accelerate from here with an attendant rally in the equity markets.
Unfortunately, we doubt that will be the way things will play. Our sense remains that with the over-stimulation comes higher than expected inflation, which will eventually lead the Fed to raise interest rates and cause the economy to slow again (the downward-sloping middle right side of the "W"), or the fabled economic doubled-dip. Nevertheless, aiding our near-term positive outlook was last week’s price breakdown in crude oil.
For months we have suggested crude was likely putting in a top. That "call" was driven by our sense the politicos were going to propose legislation to force the price of crude downward in front of the elections. While we think such proposals are wrong-footed, in the near term such rhetoric can be impactful; and last week oil broke below its rising trendline in the charts. If the slide continues, and it breaks below $120/bbl, "hot money" will think the top is "in" and act accordingly. This is the reason we have been shy of the energy complex for the past few months, as well as why we have recommended rebalancing ALL energy stocks in the portfolio.
Rebalancing (read: sell partial positions) allows long-term capital gains to accrue in the portfolio, and causes cash positions to rise, giving investors the "ammunition" to take advantage of new investment opportunities as they present themselves. For the last few weeks we have suggested, "At such a potential short-term downside inflection point, what you need to buy are those companies/indices with the best relative strength characteristics and those with the worst relative strength characteristics. Since we already own those with the best characteristics, we have concentrated on those with the worst characteristics. Consequently, our vehicles of choice were financials and real estate."
The call for this week: If the decline in crude oil continues to play, it should be bullish for stocks. Indeed, just as in horseshoes and hand-grenades, all you have to be is "close" when attempting to "catch" a bottom in the stock market to make a lot of money if you adopt a scale-in buying approach, which is what we have attempted to do over the past few weeks! As stated two weeks ago, "What a great time to be an investor" for if you are a well prepared investor, volatility breeds opportunity.
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Investment Strategy: "the System Will Hold Together!"
By Jeffrey Saut | 14 July 2008
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That said, in my opinion these two GSEs will not be allowed to fail because the collateral damage would be global, as well as enormous, since their "paper" is held by institutions around the world. Also, allowing these GSEs to fail would accelerate the current credit crunch and send the housing complex even further into a death spiral. While some are suggesting a "conservatorship" approach under the Federal Housing Enterprises Act, we peg the probability of that as low due to capital cushion/statutory capital issues. Similarly, we think the odds of a capital infusion by the government to be low, as is the government’s implicit backing of the GSEs’ debt.
I guess bringing the GSEs on to the federal balance sheet makes some sense because assertions that would increase the government’s debt by $5.3 trillion are an overstatement. Indeed, the $5.3 trillion figure refers to the GSEs’ holdings of mortgages/loan-guarantees, which are not the same thing as liabilities. Still, such a nationalization of the GSEs would require congressional approval and that would likely take a long time [[not with the fires of Hell to spur the assorted miscreants, from congress to the administration to the Fed to ... And, it's a wonder what corners can be cut if there is no one eager to prosecute. : normxxx]]....
Our guess is the solution lies in either a private capital infusion, with certain guarantees like with Bear Stearns [[not viable; they're simply too big: normxxx]], or giving the GSEs the ability to draw on lines of credit from the Treasury Department and/or the Fed [[I believe BB has already committed to such a course: normxxx]]. In any event, I would be shocked if some action is not taken and taken quickly. Manifestly, it appears the only entities showing decent growth in the mortgage business have been Freddie and Fannie, so impinging these two behemoths in any way would worsen an already dicey environment, which was punctuated yet again by the FDIC’s seizure of IndyMac (IMB/$0.28) over the weekend.
Clearly the GSE gottcha’ of last week cast a pall over Wall Street, which was already struggling with new all-time highs in the price of crude oil. Plainly, at least so far, we have been wrong with our "call" that the politicians are going to do anything and everything in an attempt to force the price of oil lower before the elections. Last week’s price surge seemed to be driven by fears that Iran’s 2.5 million barrels per day of oil exports will be interrupted, exhausting any spare OPEC capacity. While the GSEs’ situation is worrisome, our sense is that the current market mauling is mainly about the vertiginous rise in crude’s price. Indeed, we have been adamant since the beginning of this year that the U.S. would NOT experience a recession in 2008 as defined by two negative quarters of GDP. However, we are becoming increasingly worried about 2009’s recession prospects unless crude "cracks" and cracks soon.
Indeed, the "perfect storm" seems to be having an increasing impact on the American consumer. Most recently, we have argued that what we may experience is a "W" shaped economic pattern, often referred to as a "double dip." While it’s true that as of yet we haven’t had a severe economic slide (read: recession), said recession was prevented by the herculean efforts of the Federal Reserve and the politicians.
Those efforts muted the economic slowdown, but, in my opinion, have potentially only pushed the recession further out in time. Consequently, I think we are in the middle part of the "W" pattern where participants believe the worse is behind us. Unfortunately, unless the environment changes, and changes quickly, I think we will enter the right side of the "W" pattern, resulting in a double-dip. And, maybe this is what the equity markets are sniffing out.
Speaking to the equity markets, today is session 38 in the "selling stampede," and my oversold indicator remains more oversold than it has been in decades. In last week’s letter I related that Lowry’s point spread between its Selling Pressure Index (read: supply) and its Buying Power Index (read: demand) was at 265 points at the 1974 stock market "lows." Currently, that spread is over 500 points, the largest in the 75 year history of the Lowry’s Organization, and therefore VERY oversold. Meanwhile, the Bespoke Investment group notes:
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In this whipsaw environment, trading has been difficult. However, our yield theme recommendations (read: dividends) are holding up pretty well. Some of the names that play to this theme and are favorably rated by our fundamental analysts remain Linn Energy (LINE/$23.37/Outperform), Alaska Communication (ALSK/$12.22/Outperform), Embarq (EQ/$43.50/Strong Buy), Inergy (NRGY/$24.98/Strong Buy), Legacy Reserves (LGCY/$24.70/Strong Buy), Magellan (MGG/$22.51/Strong Buy), and Teekay (TOO/$19.46/Strong Buy, to name but a few.
The call for this week: Friday felt like Bear Stearns II, since the news about the GSEs broke on Friday just as with Bear Stearns. Hopefully, this week will be a déjà vu dance of the week following the Bear Stearns’ news with the financials leading the way to the upside. Yet as Michael Steinhardt recently said, "There is rarely a moment such as this where as a contrarian, one sees so many reasons technically, [and] stock market-wise, to be bullish. I can’t imagine a circumstance where a market is more available, more ripe, for a rally than this one. Still, this time it is different."
Investment Strategy: "why It’s A Great Time To Be An Investor"
By Jeffrey Saut | 10 July 2008
Memo to investors:
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"The nerves mean not panicking or getting swayed by fear, at the bottom, or greed, at the top;" indeed, this is why another long-embraced mantra hangs on the wall of our office stating, "The stock market is fear, hope, and greed, only loosely connected to the business cycle!" To be sure, this is the only business where when prices are LOW they let stocks go and when prices are HIGH they want to buy. And that, ladies and gentlemen, seemed to be the mood on the Street of Dreams last week as participants "sold" at what we think feels more like the end of the envisioned selling-stampede rather than the beginning of a another new "leg" to the downside. Accordingly, we scribed a special strategy alert last Wednesday (7/2/08), one of only four such alerts we have penned over the past 10 years. It read:
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Consistent with our strategy of NEVER buying an entire position all at once, we told accounts to buy a one-third trading tranche last Tuesday, another one-third tranche on Wednesday, and complete the final one-third tranche on Thursday (before the long weekend) if the equity markets took another tumble. Our strategy was based on the belief that Wall Street was, "Moving the headstones around, but not moving the graves!" Manifestly, over the past few weeks every time the "bears" have wanted to drive stocks lower they have trotted out rumors that Israel was going to bomb Iran and the Hormuz Straits would subsequently be closed. The result has been a surge in crude oil prices with an attendant stock swoon. To us, this constantly repeated rumor is getting pretty "worn." Still, given last week’s holiday-shortened, limited audience environment, the "sellers" had a vacuum in which to sell (no buyers) and the results speak for themselves.
Our stance was/is that if there were no geopolitical events over the holiday weekend, participants might just return in "buy ‘em mode" with an upside "buying vacuum." Plainly, these thoughts have been reflected in our verbal comments where we suggested what we are experiencing is a "raindrop bottom" whereby if you bought scaled "in" trading positions last week you might get "hit" by a few raindrops, but were unlikely to get very wet. So far that stance has been generally correct, which brings us to this week.
For us, this week represents a critical week. Today is day 33 in the selling-stampede, and unless we are in "crash mode," our belief is that we are making a "raindrop bottom" on a trading basis. Yet, the situation is far from a "lead pipe cinch," for as the Lowry’s organization noted in Friday’s missive:
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Unfortunately, we agree with the good folks at Lowry’s about the longer-term scheme of things. In fact, we are one of the few people that wrote about the Dow Theory "sell signal" registered in November 2007, which is why we entered 2008 in a cautious mode with oversized holdings of cash. Yet, we think a tradable "low" is at hand and are positioning accounts accordingly. If we are wrong, we will be stopped-out consistent with another one of our mantras, "Better to lose face and save skin!"
As for the investing side of portfolios, we continue to embrace the dividend yield theme, and our stock recommendations that play to it, so often mentioned in these reports. We also urge you to read the addendum attached to this report. Said addendum reprises some verbal comments made by our fundamental analysts over the past few weeks. We continue to invest accordingly.
The call for this week: We began this week’s report with a quote from The Wall Street Journal that read, "The nerves mean not panicking or getting swayed by fear, at the bottom, or greed, at the top." Last November we wrote about the Dow Theory "sell signal" when prices were high yet participants wanted to "buy." Now we are writing about the Dow Theory downside non-confirmation and prices are low yet participants want to let stocks "go" (read: sell stocks).
Meanwhile, it is session 33 in the "selling stampede," our proprietary oversold indicator is more oversold than it was at the March 2003 "low" (we were bullish there as well), the spread between Lowry’s Buying Power Index (demand) and Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index (supply) is the widest in the 75-year history of Lowry’s (indicating that stocks are very, very severely oversold), corporate insiders’ selling is at rock-bottom lows, and we are seeing numerous other indices not confirming the D-J Industrial’s "downside dive." It’s not that we are turning aggressively bullish, but we think that unless the markets are in "crash mode" it is time to consider a corrective stock market rally as B.J Thomas warms up in the wings with the song "Raindrops."
Addendum:
Paul Puryear, Director Of Real Estate Research
We look for housing prices to continue to fall. In 18 countries over the past 40 years the average housing market decline has been around five years long, some have averaged seven years. Currently, the U.S. is in year three of the current cycle. Though the affordability index has improved and is back up to 100; only because of declining prices. The worst data point, at this time, is the level of inventory.
There are currently about four million houses for sale in the U.S. and about 1.5 million for rent. Inventories are continuing to build. Another negative in housing is the mortgage default rates. In the U.S. there are about 55 million mortgages and of these approximately 6.5 million are currently delinquent. Of the 6.5 million that are delinquent, about 2.5 million are in foreclosure. The subprime delinquencies have stabilized for now, but overall all loan categories are seeing increases in delinquencies.
On the REIT front, we still like defensive names. We favor commercial over residential REITs that tend to focus more on growth. Our favorites at this time are Corporate Office Properties Trust (OFC/$33.63/Outperform), Essex Property Trust (ESS/$107.61/Outperform), Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM/$34.06/Outperform), Cogdell Spencer, Inc. (CSA/$16.28/Outperform), Digital Realty Trust (DLR/$40.91/Outperform), and Washington REIT (WRE/$29.62/Outperform). These are the six names on the REIT Priority List.
Marshall Adkins, Director Of Energy Research
The Energy sector is still in a secular bull market. We are bearish on the natural gas complex. We believe speculators are correct on the current price of oil and analysts that have set lower target prices on crude oil are incorrect. Oil prices have been increasing since 2005 when OPEC decreased production by two million barrels per day. Most countries have been unable to make up this production shortfall. China only consumes what the U.S. consumed in 1900, based on per capita data.
In contrast, gas supply has been surging recently. In addition to production shortfalls, the weakness in the U.S. Dollar has quintupled the price of crude oil for the U.S. On the other hand, Europe has seen a doubling of oil prices. This shows the disparities. Most likely, drilling will continue to increase since shale is so cost competitive. For example, Barnett Shale is five to eight times more productive than average. In addition, electric consumption in the U.S. is up only 1% over the last year. This will most likely lead to record storage by August of 2008.
We are convinced that within six to nine months gas prices will take a significant downturn. Five out of seven years in the 1970s oil prices went up as the U.S. dollar went up. Therefore, there is really no argument that a strong dollar will lead to lower oil prices. Taking a look at price manipulation, the top 10 oil companies in the world own less than 4% of the world’s supply. We ask the question, "How are they manipulating it?"
They’re not. Our favorite area is Haynesville, because the costs of extraction are so low and it will continue to be drilled. Deepwater is also a great area right now— we favor Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc (HLX/$37.71/Strong Buy), which we believe is a turnaround story. We also like National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV/$85.12/Strong Buy).
Bill Fisher, Industrial And Logistics Services Analyst
Waste Connections (WCN/$31.12/Strong Buy) has increased prices by about 4% and these price increases seem to be sticking. At this time, Waste Connections is the best name in the category. Republic Services (RSG/$29.15/Strong Buy) was the best name for a period of time. We believe that money in RSG will most likely shift to WCN. 55% of Waste Connections’ business is monopolized.
Fuel expenses are hurting Waste Connections by about a nickel per share, but the company should be able to get this back with the increased prices. At this time, Waste Connections has about $500 million on its books for acquisitions. Many family-owned waste companies are in the market to sell out of fear that an election win for Obama may lead to an increase in the capital gains tax rates. In addition, if the Republic Services Group and the Allied Waste (AW/$12.44/Outperform) deal goes through, the justice department should push for divestiture. Waste Connections would be in a position to buy up some of the divested businesses.
Fuel surcharges on international shipments have hurt UPS (UPS/$59.47/Outperform). The increase in prices for premium air shipping has caused consumes to "trade down" in favor of lower cost ground shipping. Though UPS still has a 30% return on equity (ROE). With today’s (6/23/2008) hit in the stock price, UPS is trading at the same price it was approximately nine years ago. DHL is losing about $1 billion per quarter in the U.S. UPS has recently cut a deal with DHL.
John Ransom, Director Of Healthcare Research
In the healthcare area there is a lot of uncertainty due to the upcoming presidential election. Obama would be disastrous for managed care, Medicare providers, and pharmaceutical names. Stocks in these categories should be doing well in this economic environment since they are defensive, but fear of Obama winning the presidential election has hurt their performance. For the pharmaceutical names, bringing new drugs to market is no longer an easy task. Money is going back into genetic treatments. Another factor is the weaker economy, which should hurt healthcare companies. You need to look at the balance sheet, rising volumes, which is rare, a reasonable valuation, and earnings upside.
There are three names that we like. McKesson (MCK/$54.59/Strong Buy)) has 15% sales growth and 25% is healthcare IT. Compare this to Cerner Corporation (CERN/$44.22/Outperform). MCK is cheap with a tremendous amount of growth. We like this stock a lot. Amedisys (AMED/$49.03/Strong Buy) is another good choice. We estimate that Amedisys could earn approximately $4 per share in 2009. In addition, home healthcare is booming. Everyone saves money with home healthcare.
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Normxxx
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