Guru Grades: Don Hays

Guru Grades:
Don Hays On Long-Term Cycles And Shorter-Term Trends (Last Updated 5/24/08)
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Don Hays on Long-term Cycles and Shorter-term Trends (Last Updated 5/24/08)

We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Don Hays since late 2000, shortly after he established his own investment advisory firm. Evaluated predictions/recommendations come indirectly from two sources: (1) first from MarketWatch columns as far back as early 2004; and, as subsequently suggested by reader David Zaitzeff, (2) from TheStreet.com columns covering mostly the period 2001-2004. Don Hays is president of Hays Advisory, LLC, which is "devoted to providing stock market and economic analysis, while giving you sector and stock research to help both the individual and institutional investor make decisions." The table below presents highlights from his commentary and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 21, 63, 126 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those that the market has subsequently proven right (wrong). We conclude that:

Guru Stock Market Forecasting Grades

Note that the overall assessment of the stock market forecasting ability of experts in aggregate is far more reliable, based on sample size and duration, than the evaluations of individuals.

Note also that this study is not a test of whether the outputs of the experts are interesting, stimulating or useful in ways other than predicting the behavior of the overall U.S. stock market.

We update this page and the underlying guru forecast database about weekly.

  M O R E. . .

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